In like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb?

In like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb?

 

The month of March opened up at 1101.75 on the E-mini S&P Futures. Today, March 30th at 10:28am CST, they are trading at 1165.75 – which tells us one thing – based on the current range of about 11.00 S&P Points, we will close March out as a positive one for the books.  In like a lion, out like a lamb, so the story goes for the weather around the country…the market…not so much.  This month has been pretty quiet in the S&P – the range has held at about 12.28 average points from high to low in the past 20 days. The market has been like watching paint dry, to put it mildly.  Words like range-bound, choppy --- those are the words I am hearing in the DTI trading community.  Those words also best describe my current feelings about the futures for the past 30 days.

 

Here's something to consider; when the lead trading contract rolled from March to June, a week before expiration, the market was setting new highs.  However, the June contract was trading at a discount to March.  This was an unprecedented event: a new high of the year, with the market at a discount.  It may have given traders pause.  This could be one of the things that has produced a month with only a 72.25 range.  The average monthly range is around 125.00.  If you look at the fundamentals in this market, they are not pretty.  That explains the discount trading.  But take a look at Europe.  Take a look at Asia.  Even with the data being negative in the US, it is likely still considered a safe haven.  This producesa liquidity driven market.  It goes a long way to explaining new highs. It also explains a lack of enthusiasm.

So, where do you look for opportunity? Well, besides being very patient and methodical looking for day trades in the futures, there are three stocks that have made the grade: Green Mountain Coffee (GMCE), Ford (F), and Apple Computer (AAPL). GMCR has paid its dues and been removed from the A-list, we have since replaced it with British Petroleum (BP).  Add it to your watch list for April – stay tuned for entries and exits.  I know I am personally looking forward to April 1st getting here! Plus the bonus of the Employment Report this Friday, April 2nd at 7:30am CST.   Ready to say goodbye to March 2010 and ring in a NEW MONTH!

 

Jeanette Sims

sims@dtitrader.com

800.745.7444

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posted on 3/30/2010 11:00:00 AM by Jeanette Sims

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New Highs or Retest Lower?

New Highs or Retest Lower?

As the market rally continues to grind higher and push past potential resistance, the old highs at 1147 are now in sight.  Recall that the hourly trading range that formed in January was between 1147 and 1125.  Once the 1125 was taken out to the downside that shifted the momentum decidedly down and led to the multi week sell off in the markets.  However, the markets recovered and have pushed higher for several weeks now.  This is typical of the ebb and flow to the markets.

With yesterdays ESH10 day session high of 1122.75 could prove to be very good resistance just under the 1125 low area of the January trading range.  Should resistance begin to form it creates the potential for a lower high to be formed on the weekly charts.  This is how tops are formed as a lower high on a weekly time frame could take several weeks of back and forth action to form.   Once the lower high is in place then on any time frame you must record a lower low before you can consider the trend of that timeframe to be down.  This could be setting up in the current market but it is important to realize this is a process that will take time. 

 

 

 

Posted on 3/3/2010 4:31:00 AM by Admin

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Better Butterfly – Broken Wings Fly Further

A Better Butterfly – Broken Wings Fly Further

Alex Mendoza – Chief Options Strategist

RandomWalkTrading.com

 

Traditional butterfly spreads have been around since the 1970's for good reasons – they are easy to manage, have an excellent risk-reward ratio, and enjoy the ability to surgically place trades at key technical numbers. The only downside to butterflies is that you will lose the entire premium which you paid for the spread if the underlying closes outside of the extremes on expiration.

 

There is a derivative that is far better than the butterfly which is known as “Broken Wing Butterflies,” or “One Strategy For All Markets.” The thinking is simple – if you can create a spread with all the benefits of a butterfly and without a cost or debit, then you have created some magic. Since all of Random Walk's instructors are retired members of the Chicago Board Options Exchange who traded variations of butterflies, the BWB has become one of the many staples for which we are famous.

 

Broken Wing Butterfly (BWB) Definition

A broken wing butterfly is the simultaneous purchase of one vertical spread and the sale of a slightly wider and further out-of-the-money (OTM) vertical spread which share a common center strike.  You can think of the BWB as a traditional butterfly where the protective tail (either call or put) is pulled slightly further OTM.

 

Compare the BWB to the garden variety butterfly, and let its strengths speak for themselves. The following option chain shows the closing marks for the Standard & Poor's 100 index – the OEX (February 17, 2010) – but we could have used the option chain from almost any day's prices of any index or stock. A call BWB in GOOG would have been just as good.  See IMAGE 1. 

 

Traditional $10 Put Butterfly

The spread on the left is the standard textbook butterfly that is going for a $0.65 debit.  It translates to a $650 debit on 10 contracts ($0.65 per share X 100 multiplier X 10 contracts). This poses a very real and considerable risk if the market does not decline to our chosen strikes. Although the potential profit on this trade $9,350 ($10,000 maximum profit - $650 investment) is very attractive, how many times have you had a market go in the opposite direction than what was anticipated?

 

Put Broken Wing Butterfly

The next spread shows how the spread has gone from a $0.65 debit to a $0.05 credit by simply splitting the tail strike down from 480 to 475. If the stock market declines now, we are set up to make a nice profit, and if the market stays steady or runs higher, we do not face a loss. We have added some level of risk by turning the traditional butterfly spread into a broken wing butterfly, but the risk is smaller than it would seem.

 

There are many reasons why the BWB has great durability against adverse market movement, but because of space constraints, we will limit our explanation to the most obvious and irrefutable argument – delta. As you can see below, the net delta of this position is negligible. The delta can and will change as time approaches expiration, but we have developed ways to take advantage of this and adjust when necessary.  See IMAGE 2. 


Graph

We have included a profit and loss graph to compare the overlapping BWB and normal butterfly at expiration.  At first glance, the broken wing butterfly may seem to have more downside risk, but please notice all the other areas on the chart where the break-even is far superior to the traditional butterfly spread. We give a more detailed explanation concerning the real dynamics of the BWB prior to expiration in our textbook, One Strategy for All Markets.

 

Market Direction

From here the market can move in several directions – up, down, or remain stable.

 

Higher

If the market moves higher at expiration, the spread will expire worthless.  Instead of having a $650 loss with the traditional butterfly, you will now get to keep the $50 credit, which will probably go to your broker.

 

Stable

If the market remains stable, the BWB will expand just like a normal butterfly, but usually to an even great extent.

 

Market Declines Moderately

With a slight downdraft, the position become the proverbial home-run, capable of making up to $10 plus the net credit per share.

 

Market Declines Rapidly

This spread has one negative.  A loss can occur if the market dramatically collapses. Keep in mind that these spreads are at the worst price for their given time to expiration periods, and under normal circumstances, they will slowly get better with each passing day. If a 3 sigma type move occurs, our students will learn techniques to adjust before serious losses happen.  See IMAGE 3.


Conclusion

Although there appears to be an increased level of risk associated with the broken wing butterfly compared to the traditional butterfly, most of our students agree that that risk can be minimized.  It is negligible compared to the risk of paying large debits for spreads that often go out worthless. Our retired market-makers concur that the BWB is vastly superior to the butterfly.  Learning this strategy will be a profitable time investment for you in the long run.

Image 1.

IMAGE 2.


IMAGE 3.

 

Posted on 3/2/2010 11:01:00 AM by Admin

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