New Highs or Retest Lower?

New Highs or Retest Lower?

As the market rally continues to grind higher and push past potential resistance, the old highs at 1147 are now in sight.  Recall that the hourly trading range that formed in January was between 1147 and 1125.  Once the 1125 was taken out to the downside that shifted the momentum decidedly down and led to the multi week sell off in the markets.  However, the markets recovered and have pushed higher for several weeks now.  This is typical of the ebb and flow to the markets.

With yesterdays ESH10 day session high of 1122.75 could prove to be very good resistance just under the 1125 low area of the January trading range.  Should resistance begin to form it creates the potential for a lower high to be formed on the weekly charts.  This is how tops are formed as a lower high on a weekly time frame could take several weeks of back and forth action to form.   Once the lower high is in place then on any time frame you must record a lower low before you can consider the trend of that timeframe to be down.  This could be setting up in the current market but it is important to realize this is a process that will take time. 

 

 

 

Posted on 3/3/2010 4:31:00 AM by Admin

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Better Butterfly – Broken Wings Fly Further

A Better Butterfly – Broken Wings Fly Further

Alex Mendoza – Chief Options Strategist

RandomWalkTrading.com

 

Traditional butterfly spreads have been around since the 1970's for good reasons – they are easy to manage, have an excellent risk-reward ratio, and enjoy the ability to surgically place trades at key technical numbers. The only downside to butterflies is that you will lose the entire premium which you paid for the spread if the underlying closes outside of the extremes on expiration.

 

There is a derivative that is far better than the butterfly which is known as “Broken Wing Butterflies,” or “One Strategy For All Markets.” The thinking is simple – if you can create a spread with all the benefits of a butterfly and without a cost or debit, then you have created some magic. Since all of Random Walk's instructors are retired members of the Chicago Board Options Exchange who traded variations of butterflies, the BWB has become one of the many staples for which we are famous.

 

Broken Wing Butterfly (BWB) Definition

A broken wing butterfly is the simultaneous purchase of one vertical spread and the sale of a slightly wider and further out-of-the-money (OTM) vertical spread which share a common center strike.  You can think of the BWB as a traditional butterfly where the protective tail (either call or put) is pulled slightly further OTM.

 

Compare the BWB to the garden variety butterfly, and let its strengths speak for themselves. The following option chain shows the closing marks for the Standard & Poor's 100 index – the OEX (February 17, 2010) – but we could have used the option chain from almost any day's prices of any index or stock. A call BWB in GOOG would have been just as good.  See IMAGE 1. 

 

Traditional $10 Put Butterfly

The spread on the left is the standard textbook butterfly that is going for a $0.65 debit.  It translates to a $650 debit on 10 contracts ($0.65 per share X 100 multiplier X 10 contracts). This poses a very real and considerable risk if the market does not decline to our chosen strikes. Although the potential profit on this trade $9,350 ($10,000 maximum profit - $650 investment) is very attractive, how many times have you had a market go in the opposite direction than what was anticipated?

 

Put Broken Wing Butterfly

The next spread shows how the spread has gone from a $0.65 debit to a $0.05 credit by simply splitting the tail strike down from 480 to 475. If the stock market declines now, we are set up to make a nice profit, and if the market stays steady or runs higher, we do not face a loss. We have added some level of risk by turning the traditional butterfly spread into a broken wing butterfly, but the risk is smaller than it would seem.

 

There are many reasons why the BWB has great durability against adverse market movement, but because of space constraints, we will limit our explanation to the most obvious and irrefutable argument – delta. As you can see below, the net delta of this position is negligible. The delta can and will change as time approaches expiration, but we have developed ways to take advantage of this and adjust when necessary.  See IMAGE 2. 


Graph

We have included a profit and loss graph to compare the overlapping BWB and normal butterfly at expiration.  At first glance, the broken wing butterfly may seem to have more downside risk, but please notice all the other areas on the chart where the break-even is far superior to the traditional butterfly spread. We give a more detailed explanation concerning the real dynamics of the BWB prior to expiration in our textbook, One Strategy for All Markets.

 

Market Direction

From here the market can move in several directions – up, down, or remain stable.

 

Higher

If the market moves higher at expiration, the spread will expire worthless.  Instead of having a $650 loss with the traditional butterfly, you will now get to keep the $50 credit, which will probably go to your broker.

 

Stable

If the market remains stable, the BWB will expand just like a normal butterfly, but usually to an even great extent.

 

Market Declines Moderately

With a slight downdraft, the position become the proverbial home-run, capable of making up to $10 plus the net credit per share.

 

Market Declines Rapidly

This spread has one negative.  A loss can occur if the market dramatically collapses. Keep in mind that these spreads are at the worst price for their given time to expiration periods, and under normal circumstances, they will slowly get better with each passing day. If a 3 sigma type move occurs, our students will learn techniques to adjust before serious losses happen.  See IMAGE 3.


Conclusion

Although there appears to be an increased level of risk associated with the broken wing butterfly compared to the traditional butterfly, most of our students agree that that risk can be minimized.  It is negligible compared to the risk of paying large debits for spreads that often go out worthless. Our retired market-makers concur that the BWB is vastly superior to the butterfly.  Learning this strategy will be a profitable time investment for you in the long run.

Image 1.

IMAGE 2.


IMAGE 3.

 

Posted on 3/2/2010 11:01:00 AM by Admin

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Why Today is a Revealing Day!

 

Why today is a revealing day!

Wednesday Update

Today should be a revealing day of trading.  The markets have had an extended run to the upside after breaking out of the consolidation early last week.  Monday the ESH10 opened the day session at 1110.50 and closed at 1007.50.  This was the first trading day in 7 that recorded a close lower than the open.  This is often a signal that the market is losing momentum and this occurred in proximity to expected resistance at the 50 SMA.  Then yesterday the market once again traded from up to down and closed down approximately 10 ES points on the day, marking the first really down day in some time.

The market was able to rally back some late to close off its lows however and normally after a good momentum move up the first pullback is a buy.  The market is set to open just above its 8 EMA at 1096.30 and the 20 EMA is at 1093.50.  The 8 is back above the 20 and we are watching pullbacks on Wednesday to see if support does in fact come in near these levels.  Tuesday’s low of 1090.25 could be tested again as well and will be an important area if tested.

 

DTI Partners, Inc.

1.800.745.7444

http://www.dtitrader.com

 

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures is Risky.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Understand the

Risk before you trade. 

DTI – 1555 University Blvd South – Mobile, Al 36609

 

 

Posted on 2/24/2010 5:25:00 AM by Admin

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High Frequency Trading

High-Frequency Trading

By Irene Aldridge

 

High-frequency trading (HFT) uses quantitative investment computer programs, known as algorithms, to hold short-term positions in equities, options, futures, ETFs, currencies, and all other financial instruments that possess electronic trading capability.  (Some securities, like Credit Default Swaps, for example, cannot be traded electronically, and are incompatible with investment algorithms.) 

 

Aiming to capture just a fraction of a penny per share or currency unit on every trade, high-frequency traders move in and out of such short-term positions several times each day.  Fractions of a penny accumulate fast to produce significantly positive results at the end of every day.   

 

“High-frequency trading” became a buzzword in 2009, when Goldman Sachs accused one of their ex-employees of stealing their “cash cow,” a sophisticated computer program capable of generating millions of dollars in trading profits over short periods of time.  Yet, HFT has been around since the early 1980s, when several stock exchanges first decided to experiment with electronic trading.  Since the 1980s, HFT has been growing in scope, speed and its complexity.  

 

At the heart of HFT is a simple idea that properly programmed computers are better traders than humans.  Computers can easily read and process amounts of data so large, it is inconceivable to humans.  For example, frequently traded financial securities such as EUR/USD exchange rate can produce well over 100 distinct quotes each second.  Each quote, or “tick,” carries unique information about concurrent market conditions.  And while a dedicated team of human traders may be able to detect some tradeable irregularities in such fast-paced data over time, human brains are no match to computers that can accurately resolve and act upon all minute information infusions in the markets.  Add to that the fact that computers seldom get ill, are easily replaceable, and have no emotions.  Oh, and they’ve become really cheap. 

 

The complexity of computer technology currently required by many HFT systems pales in comparison with that required to play modern video games.  As video game purveyors drive the prices of advanced computer technology down, high-frequency trading becomes increasingly affordable to anyone with an inclination for quantitative analysis and programming.  Call this a .com 4.0 revolution: the latest technology long deployed in many other industries has finally arrived on Wall Street. 

 

Some high-frequency trading strategies are quantitative investing strategies, deployed at high speeds.  Other strategies, specific to high-frequency trading, work with market minutia, known as “microstructure.”  In both cases, high-frequency traders feed off small intraday variations in prices and do not impact long-term investors. 

 

Irene Aldridge, the author of “High-Frequency Trading: A Practical Guide to Algorithmic Strategies and Trading Systems” (Wiley), will present a comprehensive overview of high-frequency trading on February 22, 2010.  Irene will be the featured guest speaker for DTI's GLOBAL MARKET MONDAY on monday, February 22, 2010.

Posted on 2/17/2010 7:32:00 AM by Admin

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Market in Breakout Mode

Market in Breakout Mode:

One of the key aspects to understand in trading is the cyclicality of both price and volatility.  This past week the market had an inside week, the first in quite some time.  The term “inside” means that that price put in a lower high and a higher low, thus all price action was inside the previous weeks.  This concept can be applied on multiple time frames and it typically signals a period of rest or consolidation for the market. 

Strength of trend vs. consolidation can also be measured by the indicator, ADX, or Average Directional Index.  This useful indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder as a method to determine the strength of a trend, up or down.  The ADX is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100.  However, readings above 60 or below 10 are rare.  Like all oscillators different traders use these tools differently.  It is important to understand that the best trading usually takes place when the ADX is higher vs. lower and is rising vs. declining.  A dropping ADX environment can lead to choppy trading as the market tests both sides of the range and does not trend.  Again, it is important to understand the trading environment you are trading in and adjust your trading plan accordingly.    

With the current ADX on the 60 minute ES chart at 12.3 we know that the market is in a tight trading range on this time frame.  This is the lowest ADX reading on the 60 minute time frame in 2010.  A breakout will occur soon but some traders might wait for the ADX to move above a certain level (i.e. 20) to signal a breakout where others will just be alert that we are in breakout mode.   Some traders also combine the ADX with the DMI. Directional Movement Index which was also developed by Wilder.   The DMI has a positive and negative reading and will determine if the trend is actually up or down based on which reading is higher. 

This can also be seen on a daily chart which shows a lot of price bar overlap.  Anytime you can draw a horizontal line and it touches several bars on any time frame, you know the market is consolidating.  A market that consolidates is building energy that will be unleashed once it breaks out in either direction.  This is what happened earlier this year when the 1125 area on ES was taken out and the market exploded into a solid downtrend.

 Given that the market is in a down trend and has rallied up to potential resistance areas we believe we are in a logical spot to look for the market to turn back down.  We are watching 1056 as a key testing area on the ES and then 1053 and the yearly low at 1040 below those.

 

DTI Partners, Inc.

1.800.745.7444

http://www.dtitrader.com

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures is Risky.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Understand the

Risk before you trade. 

DTI – 1555 University Blvd South – Mobile, Al 36609

Posted on 2/15/2010 9:21:00 AM by Admin

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Accelerate the learning process and paper trade with live data 24 hours a day...

“Accelerate the learning process and paper trade with live data 24 hours a day,
7 days a week using NinjaTrader’s Market Replay Technology”

By Ryan Sindelar

 

As presented in the DTI TradeRoom on Monday, February 1st at 1:30 PM CST (Chicago Time)

 

Thank you for attending Monday's training event in the DTI TradeRoom covering NinjaTrader’s powerful array of analytic tools, innovative trade management features and industry proven order execution capabilities.  I appreciate the time and courtesy extended to me by the traders in the room and it is always a pleasure getting to work with the DTI team. 

 

One highlight from the event was the opportunity to present how NinjaTrader can be used to practice and fine tune your trading skills and strategies 24 hours a day, seven days a week using NinjaTrader’s Market Replay technology.  Imagine replaying the exact moment in time you entered your trade and watch the chart as the trade unfolds during your nightly trade review. Was your exit decision sound and did you follow your trading rules?  NinjaTrader’s market replay allows you to record and replay multiple markets simultaneously at any time in the future.  This technology is an invaluable educational tool that can help accelerate the continual learning process of trading.

 

NinjaTrader Market Replay Instructions

 

NinjaTrader makes it easy for DTI students to record and replay data on their own time, at their own pace and as many times as needed.  Unlike most products that only allow you to replay one market at a time, NinjaTrader provides synchronous replay of any and all recorded markets and delivers this market data to all NinjaTrader windows as if it was happening real-time.

 

You can accomplish setting up NinjaTrader Market Replay by following these instructions…

 

·         From the NinjaTrader Control Center window select the menu Tools > Options

·         Go to the "Data" tab

·         Enable "Run market replay recorder"

·         Press the "OK" button

 

With the recorder enabled, NinjaTrader will record all level I and level II data while you are connected. This data will then be available to replay at a later date via the menu File > Connect > Market Replay Connection.  Please join our Friday Market Replay training sessions to learn more!

  

Click here for our complete schedule of NinjaTrader free training sessions

Click here for more information on Market Replay!

 

Get Started with NinjaTrader for Free Today!

 

As an active trader, the trading tools you select will have a dramatic impact on your success. Whether you trade futures, forex, or equities, you can significantly enhance your trading efficiency through NinjaTrader’s powerful array of analytic tools, innovative trade management features and industry proven order execution capabilities. 

 

NinjaTrader is unique in the trading industry in that we provide an end-to-end trading platform that is FREE to use for advanced charting, market analytics, trading system development and trade simulation using their state of the art trade simulator.

 

Click here to download NinjaTrader free!

 

 

Please email us at sales@ninjatrader.com to learn more!

Posted on 2/1/2010 11:28:00 AM by Admin

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What is it about Monday?

We wanted to shares some statistics on recent market activity that we find truly amazing.  Long term StockYard subscribers will recall how we have discussed for over a year the tendency for the equity markets to have extremely positive results on the first trading day of each month.  In fact, the entire gain of the past several years can be traced to just being in the markets on the first trading day of the month.  It has been a very effective method of capturing gains with limited risk exposure to the markets. 

After the gains on Monday January 25 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has now risen an incredible 19 of the past 21 first trading days of the week (either Monday or Tuesday after a holiday).  Even more interesting is the fact that 80% of the rally from the March 2009 low can be traced to the gains that have occurred on these first days.  This certainly could be the fodder of conspiracy theorists and we have no logical explanation but we do like to track price behavior.  Always follow price action in your trading and it will lead you to many new discoveries.

For More information on trading, please contact DTI at:

DTI Partners, Inc.

1.800.745.7444

http://www.dtitrader.com

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures is Risky.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Understand the

Risk before you trade. 

DTI – 1555 University Blvd South – Mobile, Al 36609

 

Posted on 1/27/2010 4:54:00 AM by Admin

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Markets Gear Up for Blockbuster News Events

Monday, January 25, 2010

The markets came into this week in short term oversold condition but still weak.  They were able to post mild rallies on Monday but really are still feeling their way through the markets here.  This week is like a gauntlet of economic news with many big items still left for the market to navigate.  It is like the Existing Home Sales yesterday and the Consumer Confidence number today were just the warm up acts.  Wednesday brings us New Home Sales in the morning followed by the FOMC Statement in the afternoon.  This is also a tentative vote scheduled for the Fed Chairman Nomination.  Any surprises here would certainly throw the markets for a ride.  Even after the FOMC Wednesday, there is more to follow with Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods on Thursday and an Advance GDP report on Friday.

This will be a lot of data being released that the market must deal with and can certainly create havoc in the markets.  With the market in the midst of its most intense decline since the rally began in March 2009 it could lead to a volatile week in the markets and traders should be prepared. 

Darrell Jones
DTI StockYard Editor-in-Chief

Posted on 1/26/2010 6:05:00 AM by Admin

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Trading a Trading Range

Trading a Trading Range:

The stock market indexes have rallied strongly for 10 months but have stalled and formed a trading range at the top of the price range.  The sideways action can be determined by a dropping ADX, price bar overlap and the lack of price progress upward.  In addition to the trading range on the daily charts, the hourly or 60 minute charts have begun to form a range also.

It is important to not over trade during a trading range. The market is building energy for the next move either up or down.  Most trading ranges will end with a lower high or higher low put in place and often with divergences in momentum oscillators. 

There is strong resistance in the ESH10 price area of 1147 and there is strong support at 1125.  These price zones can be tested repeatedly and entering too early will lead a trader to poor results.  It is best to stay in short term scalping mode and not play for larger price moves until we see one of these areas decisively taken out. 

Posted on 1/21/2010 5:46:00 AM by Admin

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Be Flexible and Watch the Numbers

Be Flexible and Watch the Numbers

After an early attempt down, the market traded higher on Wednesday as the consolidation continued.  The indexes have a triangle pattern in place with a high and a low during the past three days and neither was recorded on Wednesday.  This is a breakout pattern and we could see a range expansion and better move on Thursday.  Should this fail to materialize then another day of consolidation is likely.  The indexes continue to have glaring long term (daily chart) issues that signal a more lasting correction is near.  Given that the bull market rally has now lasted 10 months and the normal time frame for a rally such as this is 9 to 12 months we have arrived at a logical spot for some weakness. 

There are numerous sell divergences in place and the weekly MACD has been flat lining and trying to turn over.  These types of tops are typically not quick to occur but rather take time.  In terms of trading them it is always better to sell AFTER the top is in and not begin selling too soon.  These runs can extend as the top is being put in place.  As a long term investor, it is certainly time to review your portfolio and make sure you have a solid game plan.  This may be different for each person but ideas such as tightening stop losses, selling calls or buying puts, and possibly flat out raising some cash could all be utilized to protect hard earned profits.

In addition to certain indicators we track beginning to flash warning signs, the sentiment indicators are quite concerning.  Investors Intelligence shows a level of bearishness at 15% which is the lowest recorded in over two decades.  Also, the put call ratios are at extremely low levels and in some cases the lowest in two years.  Finally, the cash levels which had been an argument for a rally back in March are drying up and are showing low levels of cash on the sidelines.  This cash is often fuel for rallies because it will find its way back into equities at some point, particularly when interest rates are low like they are now.  Trading tip to remember… be flexible and focus on the numbers.


Darrell Jones
DTI StockYard
stockyard@dtitrader.com

Posted on 1/14/2010 9:03:00 AM by Admin

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